DOI: 10.5176/2251-3361_GEOS12.105

Authors: Professor Wiesław PIWOWARSKI, Zbigniew Isakow, Jacek Juzwa


Abstract: Underground mining of natural resources causes
topological changes in the rock mass space and often also a
damage to geological strata of medium and the risk of
deformation hazards for many elements of the land cover.
Thus, the paper presents an attempt to describe the process of
mining displacements based on the theory of random fields and
formulates models of estimation and optimization of an
individual risk as well as a set of risks of damage to objects
located in sub-areas of deformation. The changes in the
geometry of topological space of the geological surface layer
have been determined as the measures of hazards. The
classification of an object (objects) to the category of increased
risk of failure, reflects the inner, immanent factors
determining the risk associated with a type of the geological
strata deformation. The procedure for risk assessment takes
into account the stochastic nature of the phenomena occurring
in the premises and the geological structure and makes possible
the processing of characteristics and qualitative parameters of
these phenomena into the risk assessment of security hazards.
Also the precursors of hazards, preceding and warning about
the state of the object’s security risk, have been analysed
mainly on the basis of survey results. Assessment of the
individual risk of damage is based on the principles of the
Bayesian calculus. The group risk does not depend only on the
existing hazards but also depends on the distribution of the
population. Therefore, in the case of a group of objects, first a
total probability distribution had been determined and then
the risk for the whole set of objects was estimated. The
procedure is assisted with the theory of reliability. Danger
areas on the terrain have been determined by the measures
such as the risk of the object's damage and the values of
allowable risk for the facilities on that terrain.
Geo-environmental risk assessment, based on modelling of the
risk of sub-area coverage hazards is a tool to support the
strategy and administrative-economic management of the
terrain.
Keywords: component: risk estimation, hazarded mining area,
damage occurrence, object, ground deformation, category of
resistance to mining

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