Authors: Nien-Hsia Liu
Abstract: In Taiwan, many politicians and journalists are accustomed to relying on pre-election media polls for their projections of presidential election outcomes. However, this approach always ignores the critical issue of noncoverage problems underlying telephone surveys, which are popular in Taiwan’s media polling industry. The study suggests that, in an effort to improve the prediction accuracy, election forecasting researchers should focus more on the exploration of the likely voting intention of various types of voters, including noncoverage voters, refusal voters, undecided voters, and decided voters.
Keywords: media poll; election forecastingt; telephone survey; noncoverage ;nonresponse; presidential election; Taiwan