Authors: Aleh Kliatsko, Per Lundqvist
The main goal of the paper is to introduce a chosen modelling approach and provide a discussion on System Thinking and Analysis. The article describes modelling of energy use as a consequence of human activities in cities and especially situation where the opportunities for change are significant. We call these Situations of Opportunities (SitOpp). The paper describes a modelling approach aiming at tools to explore these situations further. The methodology is based on the concept of Human Activity Systems (HAS - What people do) and Energy Usage Systems (EUS - the system that supports these activities by aid of energy). The modelling process consists of several steps: Conceptual, Qualitative and Quantitative models are built for each SitOpp. “Calibration” and “Model use” are two important stages that are needed to be included in the modelling process. Elements from Hard and Soft Approaches are combined to model a SitOpp as an energy system. The modelling process is supported by the construction of so-called Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to facilitate multi-stakeholder and cross-disciplinary participative modelling.
This study presents schematically a process to create Conceptual as well as Qualitative models and sub-models, and the modelling process, aiming to quantitatively determine the need for primary energy in three city parts of Stockholm. The SitOpps are chosen as part of a transformation process to a normative future goal towards the so-called 2000W society (2kW is equivalent to an energy usage of 17 500 kWh per person and year). The CO2 emissions should also be reduced from today’s levels to 1ton/y and person.
The project uses the STELLA software program to build both the Qualitative and the Quantitative models where quantitative stage of the modelling process should give an answer on the following question: “How much primary energy (kW/J/KWh) and fossil fuels (CO2 equivalents) can be saved?” This is assessed by modelling the Situation.
One important aspects of this research is the understanding of the change agents (actors) and the change process. The modelling process is supporting parallel scenario building activities using Back-casting techniques.
Keywords: Modelling process/approach, Conceptual model, Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), Qualitative model, Quantitative model, Energy Efficiency, Human Activity System (HAS), STELLA .