Authors: Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, Khanji Harijan, Gordhan Das Valasai, Syed Feroze Shah, Mohammad Aslam Uqaili and Abdullah Mengal
Abstract: Pakistan is facing electricity crises for over a decade. These crises have caused shutting down of various industries, paralysed the production and exacerbated the unemployment. The majority of country’s power plants are thermal and a great proportion of fuel for these plants is imported which is a huge burden on national exchequer. Also, thermal power plants are environment unfriendly and are not sustainable. Taking into consideration government’s electricity forecasts and plan i.e. Reference Scenario (REF), this study has considered three other scenario alternatives i.e. More Hydro Nuclear (MRHN), More Hydro (MRH) and More Renewable (MRR) scenarios to meet the electricity demand by 2035. In order to select most sustainable scenario, four sustainability criteria namely technological, environmental, socio-political and economic with their seventeen sub-criteria were identified. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), an important method of Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) has been applied towards ranking of the scenario alternatives for power generation. Results of AHP model developed in this study rank More Renewable (MRR) as the most suited and sustainable power generation scenario to be pursued in order to meet the electricity demand by 2035. This research lays a foundation for policy makers of Pakistan to consider such systematic methods for sustainable power planning.
Keywords: Energy crisis, Electricity generation, Scenario alternatives, Sustainability criteria, AHP.