Price Dynamics and Forecasts of Pepper Price Evidence from Indian Spot Pepper Market

DOI: 10.5176/2251-2012_QQE15.09

Authors: T.Viswanathan and Dr G Sridharan

Abstract:

Forecasting plays a significant role in the decision making process of farmers and traders in commodity market. Any significant bias in forecasted price may lead to inappropriate decision with respect to cultivation, timing the market and hedging. The accuracy of forecast depends on the selection of model. Pepper the “Black Gold of India” is one of the major spices exported from India and it is known for its volatility. In this paper we examine the forecasting accuracy of Pepper in the spot market by using univariate and multivariate models. The forecasting accuracy of various models is tested by using statistical and econometric tools.

Keywords: Simple linear regression, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Holt Winter’s model.