DOI: 10.5176/2251-1911_CMCGS15.10
Authors: WPTM Wickramaarachchi, SSN Perera and S Jayasinghe
Abstract: Dengue has been a major public health concern in the tropical world for decades now. The dynamics of dengue disease transmission depends on various external factors such as climate, human behavior, geography and demography. Modeling dengue dynamics is difficult with classical approaches due to this complexity. Fuzzy logic and fuzzy set theory is a useful tool in mathematics to model systems under uncertainty. We were particularly concerned with modeling unfavorable environmental conditions produced by climate for dengue transmission. We used fuzzy set theory to define membership functions for rainfall and temperature. Then we used a fuzzy operator and generated a fuzzy valued time series of the overall effect from rainfall and temperature. This simulated time series is then compared with the dengue cases time series reported in Colombo.
Keywords: fuzzy set, membership function, dengue, unfavorable environment, combined effect
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