Classification and forecasting of solar irradiance in Durban, South Africa

DOI: 10.5176/2251-189X_SEES18.40

Authors: Paulene Govender, Dr Alan Matthews, Dr Michael Brooks

Abstract: Forecasting for the day ahead was done using k-means clustering of daily normalized beam irradiance profiles in conjunction with publicly-available cloud cover forecasts. The forecasting method used a rule whereby predicted cloud cover profiles were classified according to whether their averages in the morning and afternoon were above or below 50{6e6090cdd558c53a8bc18225ef4499fead9160abd3419ad4f137e902b483c465}. Overall, the forecasting method had a success rate of 63{6e6090cdd558c53a8bc18225ef4499fead9160abd3419ad4f137e902b483c465}.